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Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure 平装 – 2012年 5月 8日

作者 Tim Harford (作者)
4.4 颗星，最多 5 颗星 527 评论

In this groundbreaking book, Tim Harford, the Undercover Economist, shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. When faced with complex situations, we have all become accustomed to looking to our leaders to set out a plan of action and blaze a path to success. Harford argues that today's challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinion; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt.

Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with the compelling story of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial and error in tackling issues such as climate change, poverty, and financial crises―as well as in fostering innovation and creativity in our business and personal lives.

Taking us from corporate boardrooms to the deserts of Iraq, Adapt clearly explains the necessary ingredients for turning failure into success. It is a breakthrough handbook for surviving―and prospering― in our complex and ever-shifting world.

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  1. 纸书页数
    352页
  2. 语言
    英语
  3. 出版社
    Picador
  4. 出版日期
    2012年 5月 8日
  5. 尺寸
    14.55 x 2.24 x 20.75 cm
  6. ISBN-10
    9781250007551
  7. ISBN-13
    978-1250007551
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“[Harford] offers a very useful guide for people preparing to live in the world as it really is.” ―David Brooks, The New York Times

“Brainy . . . Harford has a knack for making complicated ideas sound simple.” ―James Pressley, Bloomberg News

“Tim Harford's terrific new book urges us to understand profit from our muddling . . . Harford is a gifted writer whose prose courses swiftly and pleasurably. He has assembled a powerful combination of anecdotes and data to make a serious point: companies, governments and people must recognise the limits of their wisdom and embrace the muddling of mankind.” ―Edward Glaeser, Financial Times

“Harford's case histories are well chosen and artfully told, making the book a delight to read. But its value is greater than that. Strand by strand, it weaves the stories into a philosophical web that is neat, fascinating and brilliant . . . It advances the subject as well as conveying it, drawing intriguing conclusions about how to run companies, armies and research labs.” ―Matt Ridley, Nature

“One of the best writers who also happens to be an economist.” ―Stephen Dubner, Freakonomics blog

“This is a brilliant and fascinating book--Harford's range of research is both impressive and inspiring, and his conclusions are provocative. The message about the need to accept failure has important implications, not just for policy making but also for people's professional and personal lives. It should be required reading for anyone serving in government, working at a company, trying to build a career or simply trying to navigate an increasingly complex world.” ―Gillian Tett, author of Fool's Gold: The Inside Story of J.P. Morgan and How Wall St. Greed Corrupted Its Bold Dream and Created a Financial Catastrophe

“Harford's wide-ranging look at social adaptation is fresh, creative, and timely.” ―Sheena Iyengar, author of The Art of Choosing

“Adapt is a highly readable, even entertaining, argument against top-down design. It debunks the Soviet-Harvard command-and-control style of planning and approach to economic policies and regulations and vindicates trial and error (particularly the error part) as a means to economic and general progress. Very impressive!” ―Nassim N. Taleb, Distinguised Professor of Risk Engineering, NYU-Poly Institute and author of The Black Swan

“Tim Harford has made a compelling and expertly informed case for why we need to embrace risk, failure, and experimentation in order to find great ideas that will change the world. I loved the book.” ―Dan Ariely, author of Predictably Irrational and The Upside of Irrationality

“Tim Harford could well be Britain's Malcolm Gladwell. An entertaining mix of popular economics and psychology, this excellently written book contains fascinating stories of success and failure that will challenge your assumptions. Insightful and clever.” ―Alex Bellos, author of Here's Looking at Euclid

作者简介

Tim Harford is the Undercover Economist and Dear Economist columnist for the Financial Times. His writing has also appeared in Esquire, Forbes, New York magazine, Wired, The Washington Post, and The New York Times. His books include Adapt, The Undercover Economist and The Logic of Life. Harford presents the popular BBC radio show More or Less and is a visiting fellow at London's Cass Business School. He is the winner of the 2006 Bastiat Prize for economic journalism and the 2010 Royal Statistical Society Award for excellence in journalism.

基本信息

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ 1250007550
  • 出版社 ‏ : ‎ Picador
  • 出版日期 ‏ : ‎ 2012年 5月 8日
  • 版本 ‏ : ‎ First Picador Editio
  • 语言 ‏ : ‎ 英语
  • 纸书页数 ‏ : ‎ 352页
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 9781250007551
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1250007551
  • 商品重量 ‏ : ‎ 290 g
  • 尺寸 ‏ : ‎ 14.55 x 2.24 x 20.75 cm
  • 亚马逊热销商品排名: 图书商品里排第728,841名 (查看图书商品销售排行榜)
  • 买家评论：
    4.4 颗星，最多 5 颗星 527 评论

关于作者

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Tim Harford

Tim Harford

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Tim is an economist, journalist and broadcaster.

He is the author of nine books including “How To Make The World Add Up”, “Messy”, and the million-selling “The Undercover Economist”. Tim is a senior columnist at the Financial Times, and the presenter of Radio 4’s “More or Less”, “Fifty Things That Made the Modern Economy”, and the new podcast “Cautionary Tales”.

Tim has spoken at TED, PopTech and the Sydney Opera House. He is an associate member of Nuffield College, Oxford and an honorary fellow of the Royal Statistical Society. Tim was made an OBE for services to improving economic understanding in the New Year honours of 2019.

买家评论

4.4 星（满分 5 星）
527 条整体评分

热门评论来自 美国

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  • Tucker McClure
    5.0 颗星，最多 5 颗星 Best book I've read this year
    2013年5月18日在美国发布评论
    格式: 精装已确认购买
    A fantastic combination of evidence, discussion, and interpretation fit to influence anything from personal choices to the organizational issues of a large company. I've read numerous books from the last few years on business issues, learning from data, and the role of failures, several of which are cited by Hartford, and Adapt, I believe, is the strongest, both in its evidence and in the style of its presentation. Refreshingly, it is neither meant to be a ridiculously formal treatise nor an unfounded opinion, but presents simply a series of lessons learned about successes and interesting commonalities. Since reading this book, I can't help but find patterns matching those Hartford describes, and have begun to estimate the success of the various activities I see as a function of how well they accept and learn from their failures.

    Hartford's resources and interpretation are excellent, and the citations alone form a formidable addition to any "must read" list.
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  • Murat Cudi Erenturk
    4.0 颗星，最多 5 颗星 Adapt, evolution did, so can you
    2011年8月13日在美国发布评论
    格式: Kindle电子书已确认购买
    This is a very good book on providing how to think in an every changing world. It stresses trial and error as the best approach more than once. It touches to evolution and complexity theory but is mostly about behavior. It talks about how we need to herd new ideas, details on some of the horrible accidents we have seen so far and how our judgment can be different under stress.

    Given all the good information, the examples were sometimes too detailed and boring to make the point. Sometimes reading page after page, writer comes to a conclusion that could have been much shorter.
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  • Robert Morris
    5.0 颗星，最多 5 颗星 Natural selection and the creative process
    2013年6月23日在美国发布评论
    已确认购买
    After reading and then re-reading this book, I remain unconvinced that success [begin italics] always [end italics] starts with failure but agree with Tim Harford that it frequently does, usually through a process of trial and error in combination with experimentation and elimination. There are two keys to the success of that process: learn from each error, and, do not repeat it. Long ago, Charles Darwin observed, "It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change." I was again reminded of that observation as I began to work my way through Tim Hartford's lively and eloquent narrative.

    Here are his own thoughts about the resiliency that is required of those who seek success, however defined: "The ability to adapt requires a sense of security, an inner confidence that the cost of failure [what I prefer to view as non-success or not-as-yet-success] is a cost we will be able to bear. Sometimes that takes real courage; at other times all that is needed is the happy self-delusion of a lost three-year-old. Whatever its source, we need that willingness to risk failure. Without it, we will never succeed."

    The quest for business success involves constant experimentation. Obviously, the prospects for success are improved substantially within a workplace culture that encourages, supports, recognizes, and rewards prudent experimentation. But, as with ideas, the more experiments that are conducted, the more likely that there will be a breakthrough. The first challenge to leaders is to establish such a culture; the next and greater challenge is to sustain it. Harford has written this book to help his reader respond effectively to both challenges. His approach is philosophical, yes, because there are significant issues with important implications and potential consequences to take into full account. However, in my opinion, his approach is also pragmatic and his recommendations are eminently do-able.

    Peter Palchinsky (1875-1929) is one of the most fascinating people discussed in the book. He was a Russian industrial engineer (often viewed as a technocrat) whose progressive ideas about human rights during Stalin's consolidation of power led to several arrests and finally, execution by a firing squad. Here is Harford's brief but precise explanation of Palchinsky's principles: "First, try new things; second, try them in context where failure is survivable. But the third an critical step is how to react to failure...[to avoid] several oddities of the human brain that often prevent us from learning from our failures and becoming more successful...It seems to be the hardest thing in the world to admit that we have made a mistake and try to put it right."

    These are among the dozens of passages of special interest and value to me, also listed to indicate the scope of Harford's coverage.

    o The Soviet Union's "pathological inability to adapt" (Pages 21-27)
    o Why learning from mistakes is hard (31-35)
    o The Tal Afar experiment (50-56)
    o Friedrich von Hayek and "knowledge of the particular circumstances of time and space" (74-78)
    o Lottery tickets, positive black swans, and the importance of variation (83-86)
    o Skunk Works and "freak machines" (86-89)
    o "We should not try to design a better world. We should make better feedback loops." (140-143)
    o The Greenhouse Effect, 1859 (154-156)
    o The unexpected consequences of the Merton Rule" (169-174)
    o Why safety systems bite back (186-190)
    o Dominoes and zombie banks (200-202)
    o Making experiments survivable (214-216)
    o Adapting as we go along (221-224)
    o Google's corporate strategy: have no corporate strategy (231-234)
    o When companies become dinosaurs (239-244)
    o "Challenge a status quo of your own making"(249-256)

    Here is a brief excerpt from Chapter One: "We face a difficult challenge: the more complex and elusive our problems are, the more effective trial and error becomes, relative to the alternatives. Yet it is an approach that runs counter to our instincts, and to the way in which traditional organisations work. The aim of this book is to provide an answer to that challenge."

    Bullseye!
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  • Theodoro
    5.0 颗星，最多 5 颗星 Follow Evolution Process
    2011年8月2日在美国发布评论
    格式: 精装已确认购买
    I am just beginning but no 14 page I am glad to read this book, two phrases for me value
    1- Attention you can spend you hole life tiring to make a toaster ( to me a toast) Yes sometimes we spend to much time making something that we can buy almost ready. Maybe instead of assembling a company from the scratch we can buy on at the middle of the way. I like very much make from scratch must review that attention to Ambev.
    2- Grate companies that stays on top has failures continuous. Very interesting. Bible " richness will not go from father to soon" easiness crate incapacity to advance in this dangerous world, Chinese proverb "create your soon with a little of cold and a little of hungrier". Hery Ford assembling his line. Darwing law to survive constant evolution, to constant evolution be in a difficult environment that forces to change. Brasil at 80's amazing inflation only the strong survive....
    From many failures in business to a god but trying always to go ahead (Wall Mart, Sam, grate, grate. CEO) seem that we must have a time every day to evaluate environment, opportunities, risks ....RISKS.... like as we slip in an African jungle. Sometimes only a WORD can CLICK ! ! ! Steve, other grate grate CEO
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  • Victorya
    4.0 颗星，最多 5 颗星 enjoyed it even with the soap opera
    2014年2月28日在美国发布评论
    格式: Kindle电子书已确认购买
    Great introspective on how to manage and work toward a goal in a story setting. Some of the personal life I didn't care about but it personalized and made the story relatable.
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  • C B
    5.0 颗星，最多 5 颗星 Ok
    2020年12月7日在意大利发布评论
    已确认购买
    Libro arrivato in condizioni perfette
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  • Joost Strickx
    5.0 颗星，最多 5 颗星 An important lesson convincingly argued
    2012年4月16日在英国发布评论
    已确认购买
    This book brings a relatively simple message which is convincingly argued and illustrated by telling examples related to very topical subjects (climate change, how to tackle poverty, the financial meltdown, the war in Iraq...).
    Harford posits that the world has become such a complicated place that it is not realistic to imagine that on basis of a rational analysis of data ready-made solutions on all problems can be found. It is more realistic to arrive at appropriate solutions by testing different scenarios, by evaluating them subsequently and selecting the solution best adapted to the circumstances. Failures are inherent to this method, however are useful and should lead to better solutions, hence the book's subtitle `Why success always starts with failure'.

    As is amply shown by a wide range of examples a lot of companies and institutions have purely centralised organisations which ignore mostly the practical experiences of people in the field, with oftentimes awful consequences for these same people and catastrophic results for the whole organisation.

    Harford demonstrates this by the experience of the American army in Iraq. The American defense secretary Ronald Rumsfeld was a dogmatic proponent of a centrally commanded army, which bases its top-down orders almost exclusively on its advanced information and communication technology. That the officers in the field needed some flexibility to react to local circumstances and that some instructions were utterly inappropriate was completely ignored by central command. This culminated in Ronald Rumsfeld not accepting reality and is tellingly illustrated by his stubborn, absurd refusal to use the word `insurgency' in a press-conference on Iraq, a word that most appropriately described the situation at that moment. The army became only more successful after systematically adopting strategies which had proven their practical worth in Iraq.

    Confronted with complex challenges, companies do not have a do-for-all recipe to solve every problem and true expertise is hard to come by. The conclusions of a study on the efficiency/validity of expert-opinion is quite revealing: an evaluation showed that the value of the advice of these so-called experts was negligible.
    As a result companies could be in a quandary to act if even the experts turn out to be of little help. Harford points out that biology could offer the answer by showing how species do adapt to different circumstances: variation and selection.

    Companies should use the same strategy and adapt to their environment by trying out different strategies (variation) - however in such a way that the company can cope with a failure - and subsequently select the appropriate strategies. This method is not that evident as for organisations as well as for individuals it is difficult to accept failure, learning of them is not that easy either.
    In order to be able to do an efficient selection process, it is of utmost importance that correct feedback is accepted and organised. Hierarchical companies function mostly by counteracting this correct information flow: people sugar-coat their opinions to their superiors who in the end get a very `political' impression of what happens.

    Harford is an economist and this is obvious by the practical value attributed to the money motive to solve some of the main current problems: the most efficient way to tackle global warming is by taxing energy use, fraud in the financial world would be discovered earlier or more frequently by rewarding whistleblowers generously (Until now most whistleblowers have been de facto penalised for their denouncing frauds).

    I did find it very revealing how Harford points out the similarities between the `failure' of the financial meltdown and an industrial catastrophe as for instance the explosion of the oil and gas rig Alpha Piper: Both are failures of very complicated systems with catastrophic consequences. How the disaster of the explosion of the Alpha Piper came about can be explained quite easily and the reader can vividly imagine how it all went wrong. It turns out that the financial meltdown was not that different, most likely more complex but - this is the most worrying - in this case safety measures were mostly non-existent or completely inappropriate. In industrial processes safety measures are taken almost for granted. It is disconcerting to be aware that no contingency plans exist(ed) in the case of the much more complex and more encompassing financial system.

    This book brings home a very important lesson, shows it applicability to such diverse and important issues as poverty, global warming, the financial crisis... The myriad of well-chosen examples add to its attractiveness.

    I hope this book is widely-read, understood and lessons are learned. We could all profit of that.
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  • ATC123
    5.0 颗星，最多 5 颗星 Parents Need this for Their Children.
    2014年4月7日在加拿大发布评论
    已确认购买
    When I originally bought this book it was for management type reading and it was only after reading it a second time that I realized that while it is a good "management" type book that the real value of it is that it tells every parent something that we are prone to forget. When we were growing up (depending on your age cohort) our parents let us figure things out. Too frequently today parents try to organize every aspect of their child's life - there is no room to experiment and to fail as part of the learning process, since if our kids fail we see it as a reflection on ourselves. At work we need room to fail in order to learn and grow and there is no doubt that we need to give our children the same freedom. So you can get it for business reading but parents need it more.
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  • Przemyslaw Piotr
    5.0 颗星，最多 5 颗星 Un très bon livre
    2015年7月10日在法国发布评论
    已确认购买
    bien construit . Plein d'analyses - un livre qui peut être utile à tout le monde.
    Absolument à lire pour les gens en transition de vie proffessionnelle
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  • asier
    5.0 颗星，最多 5 颗星 Very interesting and enjoyable
    2020年10月22日在西班牙发布评论
    已确认购买
    A very good read, full of interesting ideas and real life examples around adaptation. I especially like the knitting of ideas across domains (economy, psicology, military, decision making, climate change...)
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